Research

Last updated: August 10, 2026

WORKING PAPERS
“The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Childcare Firms” Read Me

Abstract:

Childcare is essential for working families, yet it remains increasingly unaffordable and inaccessible for parents and offers poverty-level wages to many employees. While research suggests minimum wage policies may improve the welfare of low-wage workers, there is also evidence they may increase firm exits, especially among smaller, low-profit firms, which could reduce access and harm consumer well-being (Brown & Herbst, 2023; Dube et al., 2016; Luca & Luca, 2019). This study examines this potential trade-off in the context of the childcare industry, where strict staffing regulations may result in different minimum wage policy effects than in previously studied industries. Using variation stemming from state-level minimum wage increases between 1995 and 2019, I implement a border-discontinuity design to measure the potential impact on the stocks, flows, and composition of childcare establishments. I find that while aggregate establishment stocks remained stable, establishment-level turnover increased and employment decreased. Despite this, county-level employment stayed constant. I reconcile these findings by showing minimum wage increases led to compositional changes as larger establishments in the waged sector were more likely to enter and less likely to exit than smaller firms. Finally, I show the minimum wage may negatively affect the self-employed sector resulting in fewer owners with advanced degrees and more with only high school education. My findings suggest minimum wage increases change the composition of firms in the waged and self-employed sectors which could impact quality and access.

“The Static Nature of the Childcare Workforce, 1990 to 2025” Read Me

Abstract:

Despite decades of policy attention aimed at strengthening the early childhood care and education workforce, concerns about low pay, high turnover, and limited economic security persist. This paper documents long-run trends in the composition and economic conditions of the childcare workforce from 1990 to 2025, using nationally representative data from the March Annual Social and Economic Supplement of the Current Population Survey. Measured against itself, the workforce improved: education levels rose and real hourly wages increased in every setting, with the largest gains in home-based care. These gains reflect rising credentials rather than reallocation across settings. Measured against other women workers, childcare lost ground, with the annual earnings gap widening. Turnover in school- and center-based settings returned to early-1990s levels after American Rescue Plan funding expired. Sector-specific policy has raised credentials without improving childcare's relative economic position.

WORKS IN PROGRESS
“The Effect of Childcare Stabilization Grants on Childcare Establishments” (with Ethan Jenkins, Aaron Sojourner, Gabrielle Pepin, Liz Davis, and Jonathan Borowsky)

“The Effect of Minimum Wage on Childcare Worker Job Quality” (approved Census project)

“The Effect of Pre-K Expansion on Childcare Establishments” (approved Census project)

“The Effect of Pre-K Expansion on Childcare Worker Job Quality” (approved Census project)

PEER-REVIEWED PUBLICATIONS
Fitzpatrick, M.D., Sadowski, K., Chen, C., Day, S., Konty, K., and Argenio, K. (2026). Asthma Management in Schools: A Tool for Reducing Absenteeism? Economics of Education Review. READ ME

Eiermann, M., Fitzpatrick, M.D., Sadowski, K., and Wildeman, C. (2026). How Do (Human) Child Welfare Workers Respond to Machine-Generated Risk Scores? Sociological Science. READ ME

Fitzpatrick, M., Sadowski, K., and Wildeman, C. (2025). Algorithms and Decision-making: Evidence from Child Maltreatment Reports. Journal of Human Resources. READ ME

Boguslav, A., Cohen, J., Katz V., Sadowski, K., Wiseman, E., Wyckoff, J. (2023). Core Requirements, Structured Flexibility, and Local Judgment: Balancing Adherence and Adaptation in the Design and Implementation of District-Wide Professional Development. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis. READ ME

Bassok, D., Markowitz, A., Bellows, L., & Sadowski, K. (2021). New Evidence on Teacher Turnover in Early Childhood. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 42(4). READ ME

Boguslav, A., Cohen, J., Katz V., Sadowski, K., Wiseman, E., Wyckoff, J. (2023). Core Requirements, Structured Flexibility, and Local Judgment: Balancing Adherence and Adaptation in the Design and Implementation of District-Wide Professional Development. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis. READ ME

Kizilcec, R.F., Makridis, C.A., Sadowski, K. (2021). Pandemic Response Policies’ Democratizing Effects on Online Learning. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 188(11). READ ME

Markowitz, A., Sadowski, K., & Hamre, B. (2021). Teacher Education and the Quality of Teacher-Child Interactions: New Evidence from the Universe of Publicly-Funded Early Childhood Programs in Louisiana. Early Education and Development, 1-19. READ ME

OTHER PUBLICATIONS
Sadowski, K. (2026). Child care pay still lags despite decades of policy change. Brookings Institution: The Brown Center Chalkboard. Brief. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/child-care-pay-still-lags-despite-decades-of-policy-change/

Miller, L.C. & Sadowski, K. (October, 2017). Students Changing Schools During the School Year: Student Mobility in Virginia and the Challenged School Divisions. Charlottesville, VA: USA.

Miller, L.C., Sadowski, K., Piver-Renna, J. (2019). The Fifth Indicator: Does School Climate Provide New Information on School Quality? Charlottesville, VA: USA.